Kamis, 25 November 2010

KEMAMPUAN PREDIKSI RASIO-RASIO KEUANGAN TERHADAP LABA DAN ARUS KAS MASA DEPAN & PENGARUHNYA TERHADAP DIVIDEND PAYOUT RATIO

PADA PERUSAHAAN MANUFAKTUR DAN JASA

Oleh : Isti Fadah & Dessy Putri Andini
(Dipublikasi : The 4th PPM National Conference on Management Research Jakarta, 25 November 2010, ISSN: 2086-0390, hal. 1-11)
ABSTRACT
The aim of this research is to test the ability of financial ratios including gross profit to net sales, current ratio, cost of goods sold inventory, cost of goods sold to net sales, inventory to net sales, net sales to net assets, quick assets to inventory, quick assets to total assets, working capital to total assets, working capital to net sales, profit before taxes to shareholders’ equity in predicting the profit which is gotten by the company and future cash flow, and also to rest the ability of profit and free cash flow for investating or funding increasing DPR.
The research population is all public company which are listed in Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI). The research sample is taken by using purposive sampling and found 40 manufacture companies and 1 service company in 2006-2008 research period. This research uses path analysis.
The result of the rest shows that only CGSNS (cost of goods sold to net sales) ratio and PBTSE (profit before taxes to shareholders’ equity) ratio have positive and significance influence on profit intervening variable and cash flow. Meanwhile, profit and cash flow can be used to predict DPR. The profit has bether influence in predicting DPR than cash flow. This is normal because the company only can share the bigger dividend if the company can get bigger profit. If the profit is still stagnant, the company cannot give bigger dividend, because it means the company will share its own capital.
Key word : Funding Ratio, Profit, Cash Flow, and Dividend Payout Ratio.

I. PENDAHULUAN
Dividen seringkali digunakan sebagai indikator atau sinyal prospek suatu perusahaan. Oleh karena itu, perusahaan yang go public mempunyai kewajiban untuk melaporkan kinerjanya kepada investor dalam bentuk laporan keuangan dan pengumuman besarnya dividen yang dibagikan. Besar kecilnya dividen yang dibayarkan kepada pemegang saham tergantung pada kebijakan dividen masing-masing perusahaan dan dilakukan berdasarkan pertimbangan berbagai faktor. Menurut Gitman (2003), faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi kebijakan dividen suatu perusahaan adalah debt covenant, likuiditas, posisi kas, prospek pertumbuhan perusahaan, dan kuasa kendali para pemegang saham yang memiliki mayoritas saham perusahaan.
Dividend payout ratio dapat diprediksi melalui laba dan arus kas menggunakan rasio keuangan, konsep laba dan arus kas hingga kini masih menjadi bahan perdebatan dan perbincangan yang menarik bagi para akuntan dan analisis keuangan. Hal ini terlihat dari banyak penelitian-penelitian yang masih mempelajari secara empiris variabel-variabel tersebut.

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